Manuel Morales, PhD

Thanks to funding from the Montreal Institute of Structured Finance and Derivatives (IFSID), I am currently setting up a new research project in collaboration with the National Bank of Canada and the Canada Research Chair in Risk Management at HEC Montreal. This compon...

In partnership with CWP Energy, we explore different machine learning algorithms in order to first identify reliable signals and factors that in turn can be incorporated into a forecasting model for day-ahead electricity prices in Canadian markets.

In this paper we introduce a new coherent cumulative risk measure on a subclass in
the space of càdlàg processes. This new coherent risk measure turns out to be tractable enough within a class of models where the aggregate claims is driven by a spectrally positive Lévy...

In partnership with National Bank of Canada, we look at "zero-intelligence" simulator models in order to reproduce high-frequency signatures and limit-order-book features of assets of interest. This project involves event-driven simulation model developing as well as t...

The field of risk theory has traditionally focused on ruin-related quantities. In particular, the so-called expected discounted penalty function (Gerber and Shiu. N Am Actuar J, 2(1):48–78, 1998) has been the object of a thorough study over the years. Although interest...